Chapter 12: Gambler's Fallacy (1)
Although Rine had joined me as a companion, the two of us weren't enough to be called a 'party'.
Not in a metaphorical sense, but literally.
In this world, you needed at least three people to be officially considered a party.
That was the actual law.
The Adventurer's Guild Law or something.
When writing any kind of contract or request, the concept of a party was defined as starting from three people.
In other words, we needed at least one more person to begin our real journey.
And that one person was in this city right now.
* * *
Thump!
A dull sound of a hard object hitting a sturdy wooden board echoed.
It was followed by a clattering sound, as if small things were continuously bumping into each other.
“Come on, come on! Place your bets!”
As befitting a city famous for its liquor, the tavern was bustling with people despite it being broad daylight, and among them, one spot was particularly noisy.
“It's a──”
In that place where cheers and sighs intertwined, “It's a hit! It's a hit──!!”
“Aaaargh! No, no, how could this be?! Uwaaaargh!!”
A so-called gambling den was in full swing.
Dice were rolling on the table, eyes were rolling with them, gold coins jingled with every roll, and liquor glasses sloshed.
“You there, who do you think will win this time?”
“Looks like that young lady's on a roll today, eh?”
And the onlookers who had gathered to watch this spectacle—mostly with a drink in one hand—were sharing in the gamblers' joys and sorrows.
“Hahaha! Man, my luck is really on point today!”
And among them all, there was one person who stood out.
“Sorry in advance, fellas! Looks like you're all gonna lose to me today?”
She was a being who was bound to stand out in many ways.
First, she was a half-elf.
Moreover, a half-breed with a dark elf.
Even among the elven races, who had little interaction with humans, the dark elves were the ones who showed the most reclusive attitude, even among fellow elves.
Obsessed with pure blood, a half-breed of a dark elf, who wouldn't even try to interact with other races, and a human was an extremely rare existence across the entire continent, one that an individual might or might not meet in their entire lifetime.
“Alright! I'm really betting without looking, fellas? If you're scared, then piss off.”
Of course, the fact that she showed no signs of being intimidated among the burly and rough-looking men, but rather was leading the atmosphere, naturally played a part as well.
There were the piles of gold coins in front of her, but what was even more eye-catching was the single dagger next to that pile.
“A bunch of grown men with their eyes all lit up trying to fleece a little girl, huh? Scary, so scary.”
As if to say, if anyone tried any funny business, she would immediately pull out this dagger and stab them, it was proudly stuck there.
“Come on, a 6! 6! 6!”
It was obvious to anyone that she was the one dominating that gambling table.
“A si── 6! It's a 6!!”
“No way!?”
In every sense of the word.
“Wow! Did you see that? Did you see that!? Kyahahaha!”
It was then.
“You're cheating, you son of a b*tch!”
Thump!
A man who had roughly slammed the table shot up from his seat.
Then, with footsteps as loud as the sound he had just made, he stomped towards her.
Seeing this, she immediately uncrossed her legs and shot up from her seat as well.
“Ha, cheating?”
She looked straight at the man who was glaring at her with a flushed face, grinding his teeth, with her chin slightly raised.
“Didn't you just see? I really bet without even looking.”
As if to say, 'try me anytime'.
“That's what's cheating! How, how did you know a 6 would come up there!”
“I told you, I didn't know.”
“Don't lie to me!”
“How the hell would I know what's under the cup? Don't be ridiculous-–”
“You, you swindler…!”
As she continued to taunt him, the man finally couldn't hold it in and roughly grabbed her by the collar.
At that, the surprised men around them also started to get up from their seats one by one, “Hey, mister.”
But she still wore a relaxed expression and chuckled.
“What are you doing, being so embarrassing, huh? A grown man throwing a tantrum just because he lost a little dice game to a girl. If you keep this up, what kind of rumors will spread about the men in this neighborhood?”
“…!”
At that moment, the man suddenly gasped.
Looking at his frozen face, it looked as if he was flustered because he was at a loss for words, as if his sore spot had been hit.
But that wasn't it.
There was a real reason.
“It's too small, mister.”
To be precise, below.
The tip of the dagger, which had been stuck on the table until a moment ago, was now aimed between the man's legs.
“Your bowl is small.”
As if she would stab him right away if he moved even a little.
“Eek…!”
A tense, touch-and-go atmosphere filled the air.
The one who broke the silence was an onlooker who intervened, grabbing the man's shoulder.
“Now, now, you've had too much to drink.”
“The lady's right. How could she see what was covered the whole time.”
“Weren't we all just playing for fun? You got too into it.”
Starting with him, everyone around started to chime in one by one, “…Shit!”
And the man finally spat out a curse and let go of her collar.
At that, she calmly straightened her disheveled clothes.
Watching that scene, a chuckle inadvertently escaped me.
“Did you see that?”
I turned to Rine, who was next to me, and asked.
“A half-elf.”
But what came back was a very calm, or rather, a single remark that showed no particular interest.
“That man just got cleaned out.”
“Yes?”
“In that short moment, she took his bracelet, necklace, and wallet, everything.”
Rine just tilted her head, still not understanding.
In fact, even I, who had said this, wouldn't have noticed at all if I hadn't known in advance that she would do it.
It was such a swift and dazzling [Finesse] that one could easily miss it even when watching carefully.
When he first grabbed her collar, she brushed his wrist as if to block him, and took the bracelet.
As the man grabbed her collar more roughly, and everyone started to get up, making the chairs screech, the moment his head turned for a second, she took the necklace.
Finally, as he let go of her collar, she pretended to put away the dagger and cut the string tied to his waist, taking the wallet.
And so, she had fleeced the man right under his wide-open eyes in an instant.
“Too bad, mister.”
“Th-That's really…!”
Ting!
The gold coin she flicked flew towards the man.
The man, who had caught it instinctively, couldn't contain his anger, but, “Bye-bye”
In the end, he couldn't say anything to her as she blew him a kiss as if to taunt him, and just left in a huff.
That sly smile she wore as she watched his retreating back.
It was a very familiar smile to me.
Of course, it was familiar.
“Ah, wait a minute. I need a drink too. A beer over here!”
──Her name was 'Evelyn'.
Better known to the players of Malevolent Star by the nickname 'Evie', she was the 'Thief' I was looking for.
“Well, shall we continue?”
Ah, by the way, the man was right.
That whole gambling game was actually a scam.
Because one way or another, it was structured so that Evie would eventually win all the gold coins from the people sitting at the table again.
So if he had—as 'players' sitting at that table often did—methodically gathered evidence of the manipulation and reported it, Evie would surely have been the one to get caught.
Of course, he couldn't do that, and as a punishment, he got completely cleaned out.
Evie chuckled and immediately chugged the beer she received from the waitress.
After downing nearly half the glass in one go, she seemed to frown for a very brief moment, but then, as if nothing had happened, she licked the white foam from her upper lip with a nonchalant expression.
“Are you interested in that half-elf?”
“Hmm? Well, yeah.”
I came to this tavern in the first place to find Evie.
But I couldn't take Evie with me right away.
Unfortunately, I wasn't the only one looking for her.
“Hwaaam──”
Suddenly, Evie opened her mouth wide and yawned.
She then rubbed the back of her neck or took out a handful of gold coins and fiddled with them in her hand, but judging by her constantly blinking eyes, it seemed the sleepiness wasn't going away.
“No, but… why am I so sleepy all of a sudden…?”
Thump!
And suddenly, Evie slammed her head on the table.
“……?”
Perhaps because it happened so suddenly, most people reacted with confusion rather than surprise.
“…What, what is it?”
Everyone was just staring blankly at Evie, who had collapsed and couldn't get up, “Pff──”
When Evie peacefully (?) started to snore.
It meant she had simply passed out.
Once it was confirmed that her life wasn't in danger, someone let out a sigh of relief, but that was short-lived.
“……”
The area around the table was once again enveloped in silence.
The eyes of the participants sitting at the table and the onlookers surrounding them darted from side to side faster than when the dice were rolling.
“Ev-Everyone.”
In that atmosphere, one of the participants spoke.
“That money, that young lady won it fair and square, didn't she…?”
But even he, who said this, couldn't take his eyes off the pile of gold coins.
“So, so, don't get any funny ideas──”
Just as expected, “──Uooooo!!”
Crash!
The table was overturned.
“Move! It's mine!”
Participants and onlookers alike all rushed to the table at once.
At the same time, the gold coins piled in front of Evie scattered all over the floor with a jingle! jangle! sound.
“Let go! I grabbed it first!”
“Aaaargh!”
“Wh-Which bastard bit me!?”
Crack! A chair broke, clang! a glass shattered, and thwack! a fist flew.
In a word, a brawl had broken out.
And when that chaos soon spread throughout the tavern, someone was seen suddenly lifting the neglected Evie, who was lying face down on the floor, and slinging her over their shoulder.
“Let's go, Rine.”
At that, I immediately got up from my seat and lightly tapped the arm of Rine, who was silently watching the chaos unfolding before her.
It was time to go rescue a 'companion' once again.
However, there was someone I had to visit first.
“Hey.”
The waitress who had taken refuge behind the counter to avoid the brawl.
“Who…”
“The sleeping pills you put in the drink, you still have some, right?”
“…Ye-Yes?”
The one who had brought the drink to Evie earlier.
“The one someone gave you with a hefty tip. Saying to put this in the half-elf's drink. That it would just put her to sleep, so there would be no problem.”
“I-I have no idea what you're talking ab──”
『Give it to me.』
“──!”
* * *
Scrape… Scrape…
Evie slowly opened her eyes to the sound that continued rhythmically.
And she immediately realized that the sound was the sound of a blade being sharpened.
Startled, Evie immediately tried to move her body, but only the clanking sound of chains echoed.
“…Ha.”
Only then did Evie realize that she was hanging, bound by chains, and let out a hollow laugh.
“Shit, really.”
Then, she asked the menacing-looking man sharpening a blade in front of her.
“Are you from Tiaria?”
“The boss is very angry, Evelyn.”
“Ah, I bet he is.”
“He said we could do whatever we want with you until we find all the treasures you stole from the safe.”
“Damn old man. I already traded them all for candy a long time ago, what's he still looking for them for.”
“Where is it, Evelyn?”
“I just told you, you stupid bastard. I traded it for candy.”
Evie scoffed and shook her head from side to side.
At that, the man who had stopped sharpening the dagger walked straight towards Evie.
“Is it funny, huh? You find this situation amusing?”
“Shit, you guys are the ones being funny. What do you want me to do.”
“…Let's see how long you can keep laughing.”
The man, who looked dumbfounded, crossed his arms and slightly jutted his chin, and at that, the other three people all got up from their seats and walked towards Evie.
Each with one or more tools in their hands.
“Ah, hey, hey! Aah wait, wait!”
Seeing that, Evie seemed to have suddenly remembered something and started to struggle frantically.
“Ha… yeah, now I remember. I'll tell you. Where I hid it.”
At Evie's sudden change in attitude, the man sent a suspicious glance but still slowly approached Evie who was saying “I'll only tell you, so come here.”
“Your m──”
In a bright little brook,
There shot in happy haste
The capricious trout
Past like an arrow.
I stood on the shore
And watched in sweet peace
The cheerful little fish's bath
In the clear little brook.
Suddenly, a singing voice began to be heard from somewhere.
At that, everyone in the room, including Evie, turned their heads without a second thought, “──Ah?”
And for a moment, doubted their own eyes.
"The capricious trout [shot] past like an arrow."
A… walking towards them while singing in a beautiful voice…
“……What is that?”
Seeing the 'sack'.
* * *
I stood on the shore
And watched in sweet peace
Belting out Schubert's 〈The Trout〉, I began to stride towards the center of the 'stage'.
To get a closer look at my [Performance] that had started without any warning, everyone in the room began to gather towards me as if possessed.
"I stood on the shore and peacefully watched the cheerful little fish's bath in the clear little brook."
Except for one person, Evie, who was bound in chains.
And so, the four people who were drawn by my song surrounded me.
"I stood on the shore and peacefully watched the cheerful little fish's bath in the clear little brook."
I stopped singing at the end of the first verse, and at the same time, applause erupted from the four audience members, and the [Performance] concluded with great success (?).
Clap clap clap!
To respond to the pouring applause, I bowed with an exaggerated gesture.
“Thank you, everyone.”
After that, there were no countless requests for handshakes…
“But who are you?”
Instead, as soon as the applause stopped, the man with his arms crossed shot a question.
“I am a wandering bard from around these parts.”
“Wandering? …In this remote warehouse?”
“That's some kind of nonsens…”
Honestly, even I thought it was a ridiculous excuse.
But,
--
[Persuasion]
Difficulty 22
⚅ / ⚃
Great Success
--
“…things like that could happen sometimes, I guess.”
“What a remarkable coincidence.”
To them, it must have sounded like a very logical and persuasive explanation.
“More importantly, what on earth are you wearing on your head? Are you a robber?”
“It's fashion.”
“Fashion, you say… Fashion these days is profound.”
“I guess that's the trend among bards these days….”
Because I had a 'charisma' that made them understand me perfectly, no matter how nonsensically I spoke.
“I was wandering every nook and cranny to capture even one more glimpse of the scenery of this beautiful city, which I had only ever heard about in stories, and I ended up here.”
I knew these guys were after Evie.
But the route of causing a disturbance in the tavern was too risky for me, having already been to the 「Hidden Slave Auction House」.
Even though the auction house cum brewery, which was their main business, had literally turned to ashes overnight, it didn't mean the merchant association had gone bankrupt.
Even if it was a hush-hush atmosphere, everyone who needed to know, knew.
I still had to stay in Stout for a little longer, and in that situation, attracting unnecessary attention wouldn't be very helpful.
“Uh, yeah…? Well, anyway, nice song.”
“Sorry, but we're a bit busy right now. We're in the middle of something, so go do your sightseeing somewhere else.”
“Of course. I won't disturb you any further.”
So, it was best to handle this quietly here if possible.
“But, this chance encounter must also be the guidance of Lord Starion.”
I raised a bottle of wine in my hand and shook it.
“This is also fate, so how about we all have just one drink in honor of Lord Starion's will?”
Of course, this wasn't just any wine.
It was 'wine laced with sleeping pills'.
The kind that puts you in a 'Sleep' state for 10 turns the moment you drink it.
“If we don't celebrate a meeting like this, Lord Starion will surely be disappointed.”
The very same sleeping pills these guys used on Evie.
An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.
“…Have a drink? Here?”
“We are all in the city of liquor, are we not.”
The men reacted with disbelief, as expected, at me suddenly appearing while they were in the middle of 'work', singing a song, and now even offering them a drink, but, “Is that… so?”
Perhaps because bards had a reputation for being eccentric and mostly loving liquor and banquets.
--
[Persuasion]
Difficulty 18
--
The difficulty itself was a bit lower than before.
--
CHA Bonus +25
Happy
--
Well, it didn't matter anyway, because whether it was then or now, it was a roll where as long as I didn't get a 1, which was a critical failure, I would succeed.
If there had been only one die here, the probability would have been 1 in 6.
It could have been a rather risky gamble, but, 'I have two dice.'
The probability of both dice rolling a 1 was only 1 in 36.
A low figure of less than 3%.
Besides, even if I broke through that low probability and got a critical failure, thanks to the 「Attention Seeker」 trait, I would be given one more chance.
That is, 1 in 1296.
If my calculation is correct, the probability of failure here was about 0.07%.
In short, it just meant that it was really unlikely to fail.
So this wasn't a gamble, it was math.
--
⚀ / ⚀
--
“?”
--
Critical Failure
--
……Well, it could happen.
Even if it's a very low probability.
Even though it's less than 3%, if it never happened, wouldn't all the companies that make gacha games be a bunch of scammers?
If you disagree, you're right.
--
'Happy' buff effect activated!
--
Anyway.
It didn't matter since I could roll again.
If worse came to worst, I could use 「Moment of the Star」.
But using an ability that can turn 0% into 100% only once a day to avoid a near 0% chance of failure on a roll that has almost 100% chance of success doesn't make much sense, does it?
There's no way two 1s would come up twice in a row, right?
--
⚀ / ⚀
Critical Failure
--
“??”
Suddenly, your hand slipped, and you ended up dropping the bottle.
I don't remember that happening?
By the time I thought that, my body was already moving on its own as if it were a lie.
Trying to catch the bottle that I had raised high before it fell to the floor, I ended up──
“Ah.”
──Clang!
──Smashing it right over the head of the thug in front of me.